Show HN: Data analysis of HN whoishiring posts

https://basc.substack.com/p/bas-take-on-tech-job-market-analysis

Hi there,

thanks for reading my tech newsletter about the recent buzz in tech.

Have a great week ahead!

As promised in the last issue of my newsletter, here is an analysis of the job market.

According to Indeed software development is the sector with the sharpest decline in job postings (as of Dec 29, 2023).

Job Postings on Hacker News confirm this claim.

The number of postings on Hacker News ranged in the all-time low area. In contrast, the number of people actively seeking a job increased to a new high which was only superseded by the spike at the beginning of the COVID pandemic.

Comparing the Hacker News data to the FRED (St. Louis FED) data, the decline in job postings does not only appear steeper but has also set in earlier in tech compared to the overall private sector.

If we (falsely) assume all of the job postings led to a newly created job (and did not replace any), we’d see the disparity between the overall private sector and the tech sector already begins mid-2021.

Is all of that an expression of corporate greed? Like, software companies operate on high margins, and thus, any position cuts would result in higher earnings per share?

Since 2023 (after a sharp decline) that seems to be the case for NASDAQ 100 (for lack of a better proxy for the tech industry).

However, earnings per share do not reflect such a steep rise, meaning that the operating margin is not increasing and in fact, ranging below the five-year mean.

Could it just be that the tech industry is not “new” anymore? And just part of the “normal” economy? That there is not a big disparity between “old economy” and “new markets”?

Still, tech operates on higher OpEx and thus, is more sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Here are some interesting charts on the relative importance of different technologies mentioned in Hacker News “whoishiring” posts over time:

I have changed this newsletter from “occasional” to at least once every two weeks. The new format not only contains curated news and insights from the tech world but also sets the stage for fellow developers.

I will ask people about their journeys in the tech world and also in life. I’m pretty sure there is much to learn from listening to other people’s experiences, and I am excited to share that with you!

Of course, I need your help with this.

Please tell me if you want to share your story with my 600+ readers!

What is something you learned?
What are some books that recently influenced you?
What do you want to share with others about your life, your productivity, your career, and your health?

Reach out to me on this form.

Let me know how I can make the newsletter better.

I set up a short feedback form here.

It would mean the world to me if you spent a minute or two filling it out!

Best,

Discussion about this post

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  "score": 23,
  "time": 1714487832,
  "title": "Show HN: Data analysis of HN whoishiring posts",
  "type": "story",
  "url": "https://basc.substack.com/p/bas-take-on-tech-job-market-analysis"
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{
  "author": "Bas Steins",
  "date": "2024-04-30T14:30:47.000Z",
  "description": "It’s very hard to make sense of the current state of the tech job market. We will have a look",
  "image": "https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1200,h_600,c_fill,f_jpg,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda6e5f17-ef68-4986-9376-27f0a71726e2_1200x630.jpeg",
  "logo": "https://logo.clearbit.com/substack.com",
  "publisher": "Substack",
  "title": "Bas’ Take on Tech: What’s going on in the job market?",
  "url": "https://basc.substack.com/p/bas-take-on-tech-job-market-analysis"
}

{
  "url": "https://basc.substack.com/p/bas-take-on-tech-job-market-analysis",
  "title": "Bas' Take on Tech: What's going on in the job market?",
  "description": "Hi there,thanks for reading my tech newsletter about the recent buzz in tech.Have a great week ahead!As promised in the last issue of my newsletter, here is an analysis of the job market. According to Indeed...",
  "links": [
    "https://basc.substack.com/p/bas-take-on-tech-job-market-analysis"
  ],
  "image": "https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:best,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbasc.substack.com%2Fapi%2Fv1%2Fpost_preview%2F144107780%2Ftwitter.jpg%3Fversion%3D4",
  "content": "<div><article><div><p>Hi there,</p><p>thanks for reading my tech newsletter about the recent buzz in tech.</p><p>Have a great week ahead!</p><p><span>As promised in the last issue of my newsletter, here is an </span><strong>analysis of the job market</strong><span>. </span></p><p><span>According to</span><strong><span> </span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://data.indeed.com/\">Indeed</a><span> software development is the sector with the sharpest decline in job postings</span></strong><span> (as of Dec 29, 2023). </span></p><p><span>Job Postings on </span><strong>Hacker News confirm this claim</strong><span>.</span></p><p><span>The number of postings on Hacker News ranged in the </span><strong>all-time low area</strong><span>. In contrast, the number of people actively </span><strong>seeking a job increased to a new high</strong><span> which was </span><strong>only superseded</strong><span> by the spike at the </span><strong>beginning of the COVID</strong><span> pandemic.</span></p><p><span>Comparing the </span><strong>Hacker News data to the FRED (St. Louis FED) data</strong><span>, the decline in job postings does not only appear steeper but has also </span><strong>set in earlier in tech compared to the overall private sector</strong><span>.</span></p><p><span>If we (falsely) assume all of the job postings led to a newly created job (and did not replace any), we’d see the </span><strong>disparity between the overall private sector and the tech sector already begins mid-2021</strong><span>.</span></p><p><span>Is all of that an expression of </span><strong>corporate greed</strong><span>? Like, software companies operate on high margins, and thus, any position cuts would result in higher earnings per share?</span></p><p><span>Since 2023 (after a sharp decline) that </span><strong>seems to be the case for NASDAQ 100</strong><span> (for lack of a better proxy for the tech industry).</span></p><p><span>However, </span><strong>earnings per share do not reflect such a steep rise</strong><span>, meaning that the operating margin is not increasing and in fact, ranging below the five-year mean.</span></p><p><span>Could it just be that the tech industry is </span><strong>not “new” anymore?</strong><span> And just part of the “normal” economy? That there is not a big disparity between “old economy” and “new markets”?</span></p><p><span>Still, tech operates on </span><strong>higher OpEx</strong><span> and thus, is </span><strong>more sensitive to changes in  interest rates</strong><span>.</span></p><p><span>Here are some interesting charts on the relative importance of different technologies mentioned in Hacker News “</span><code>whoishiring</code><span>” posts over time:</span></p><ul><li><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.hanselman.com/blog/open-sourcing-dos-4\">Open Sourcing DOS 4</a></p></li><li><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1784450545509658867.html\">Google has laid off their Python Foundation team</a></p></li><li><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/25/bytedance_tiktok_law/\">ByteDance 'would rather' torpedo TikTok than sell it off</a></p></li><li><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.wsj.com/business/oracles-jump-to-nashville-surprises-austin-a4af5e18\">Oracle’s Jump to Nashville Surprises Austin</a></p></li></ul><p>I have changed this newsletter from “occasional” to at least once every two weeks. The new format not only contains curated news and insights from the tech world but also sets the stage for fellow developers. </p><p><span>I will ask people about their journeys in the tech world and also in life. I’m pretty sure there is </span><strong>much to learn from listening to other people’s experiences</strong><span>, and I am excited to share that with you! </span></p><p><span>Of course, </span><strong>I need your help</strong><span> with this. </span></p><p>Please tell me if you want to share your story with my 600+ readers!</p><ul><li><p><strong>What is something you learned?</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>What are some books that recently influenced you?</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>What do you want to share with others about your life, your productivity, your career, and your health?</strong></p></li></ul><p><span>Reach out to me </span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http://click.revue.email/ss/c/tViTjqfgHBuvLoFgNPyl4iCG7NXadnsluoSS7Oo8Yi49F6s9q2ykgFCSeHGeLgJGoU3eNuUQbXGzCTr9NSgR2_l1ep-qP0SeHXoI8PKVZrTcV-w_iGKdC1ilfr1ava6PL-pBpyv289NoR8sJ7NydVQ/3sx/9W_jfdJPTYaKpWADAAyELQ/h20/9_OOiSYby-GxEoyKXLTYMWUKhQd3QPZ68ZFKVP4wd2w\">on this form</a><span>. </span></p><p>Let me know how I can make the newsletter better. </p><p><span>I set up a short </span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http://click.revue.email/ss/c/tViTjqfgHBuvLoFgNPyl4vzp2_FzFyLhIysK0xZ6ECPnLaiJySoMKV-WZvkwtorRIam8gBF1AT6a-S9161tO6Jm3bjnHQD7la4T5xHQMkdCXEnl0uJ2391nHYK0eEm8btyb50OIqH4_z0P5_Uj7cDQVo3JrFEyjxv2ByTIuHr-Q/3sx/9W_jfdJPTYaKpWADAAyELQ/h21/ip31mKqEJiJuVu_qCApVltQaOQp6Caq0JBgzcitt9oc\">feedback form here</a><span>. </span></p><p>It would mean the world to me if you spent a minute or two filling it out!</p><p>Best,</p><div><figure><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png\"><div><picture><source type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"></source><img src=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0db79aa-4f37-4276-af3a-ea1c553a2f3c_192x192.png 1456w\" /></picture></div></a></figure></div></div></article></div><div><h4>Discussion about this post</h4></div>",
  "author": "Bas Steins",
  "favicon": "https://substackcdn.com/icons/substack/icon.svg",
  "source": "basc.substack.com",
  "published": "2024-04-30t14:30:47+00:00",
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